Originally published in June 2020 during the early COVID-19 pandemic. Updated in September 2026 to focus on the enduring leadership question: how do you choose a useful action when circumstances are uncertain?
When circumstances change quickly, it is natural to react. A customer cancels, costs rise or a key person leaves, and the immediate problem takes over your attention. You may not control the disruption, but you can examine the decisions in front of you.
My invitation is to pause long enough to distinguish what needs an immediate response from what deserves a considered plan. Taking action does not mean pretending you are certain, or blaming yourself for circumstances outside your control.
Separate the facts from the assumptions
Write down what you know, what you are assuming and what you still need to find out. “A customer has delayed an order” is a fact. “All our customers will do the same” is an assumption to test, not a conclusion to build your entire plan around.
Ask which decisions are time-sensitive, which can wait for better information and which require specialist advice. If cash timing is part of the problem, the cash-flow review guide provides a starting point for a conversation with your accountant.
Choose one action you can review
Rather than trying to solve everything at once, choose a manageable next step. State who will do it, by when, and what you hope to learn. For example, you might contact three customers to clarify their plans before changing your delivery schedule. This is an illustrative exercise, not a promise of a particular result.
Set a review date. Did the action provide useful information? Have your assumptions changed? What should you continue, stop or adjust?
Lead without pretending to have every answer
You can acknowledge uncertainty and still give people direction. Explain what is known, what the immediate priority is and when you will update the team. Invite relevant concerns without promising that every concern can be resolved immediately.
The hands of the clock will continue to turn. The question is not whether you can eliminate uncertainty, but how you will use the time and information available to you.
Put the reflection into practice
If you would value a structured conversation about your next business decision, explore business coaching with Joel or book a free 15-minute fit call.
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