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Independent Thinking in a Crisis: Examine Evidence, Not Just the Crowd

By April 21, 2025 September 6th, 2026 No Comments

Independent thinking does not mean disagreeing with the majority or trusting instinct over expertise. It means examining the reasons for a decision and being willing to change your view when better evidence appears.

During a crisis, leaders may feel pressure to copy competitors, make a dramatic move or appear certain. A more useful aim is a decision process that fits the urgency and consequences of the situation. Sometimes the responsible choice is to follow established guidance.

Separate urgency from pressure to look decisive

Ask what must be decided now, what can wait and what happens if you delay. Use the relevant emergency procedures and qualified advice for safety, legal, financial or other high-consequence matters. A reflective coaching conversation should not hold up an urgent response.

Where there is time to examine options, use it deliberately. Endless research can become avoidance, but a rushed decision made mainly to demonstrate confidence is not necessarily better.

Write down the claim you are accepting

“Everyone is cutting back” is not a precise basis for action. Which organizations, in what circumstances, and what evidence shows their decision is relevant to yours?

Distinguish observation, interpretation and recommendation. For example: a customer delayed a project; you interpret that as weakening demand; you recommend changing capacity. Each step needs its own examination.

Ask what you know directly, what you heard second-hand and what remains uncertain. Repetition of a claim does not create independent evidence for it.

Look for information that could change your mind

Before committing, ask what would make the preferred option less attractive. Seek relevant expertise and perspectives from people affected by the decision, not just those likely to agree.

  • What is the strongest reasonable argument against this choice?
  • Which assumption matters most if it is wrong?
  • What alternative explanation fits the facts?
  • Whose practical knowledge is missing from the discussion?
  • What would justify revisiting the decision?

Not all opinions carry equal evidential weight. Consider the source’s relevant knowledge, the quality of the information and possible conflicts of interest.

Make disagreement usable

If you lead the meeting, consider hearing others’ assessments before announcing your preferred answer. Invite specific concerns and explain how they will be considered. Do not ask for challenge and then punish people for offering it.

People may need an appropriate private or written route to raise a concern. Do not assume silence means agreement, and do not force personal disclosure in the name of openness.

The goal is not endless debate or consensus at any cost. Clarify who decides and how unresolved objections will be recorded or escalated.

A hypothetical competitor announcement

Imagine a business owner hearing that a competitor has launched a lower-priced service. The first reaction is to match it immediately.

A more deliberate review asks whether the services are comparable, whether customers are actually requesting the change and what the implications would be for delivery. The owner may still change the offer, but the decision would rest on their business’s evidence and constraints—not simply the competitor’s announcement. This is a discussion example, not pricing advice or a client result.

Record the decision and its limits

Keep a proportionate record of the decision, the evidence used, important uncertainties and who owns the next action. Set a review point suited to the pace and risk of the situation.

Changing a decision after new information arrives is not automatically a failure of conviction. Equally, an outcome you dislike does not by itself prove the original process was poor. Review what was reasonably knowable at the time as well as what happened afterwards.

What coaching can—and cannot—contribute

Coaching can provide space to examine your reasoning, competing priorities and response to pressure. A useful coach should be open to challenge too; replacing the crowd’s certainty with a coach’s certainty is not independent thinking.

Coaching is not a safety net against commercial loss, a source of guaranteed answers or a substitute for professional expertise. The leader retains responsibility for decisions within their authority.

Book a free 15-minute fit call to discuss whether coaching may be appropriate. You can also apply for two weeks of free coaching. Joel personally reviews applications; acceptance is not guaranteed.

Joel Zimelstern

Joel Zimelstern

I use my leadership skills to empower others and help clear the way for them to become the best version of themselves, and in doing so, I create opportunities for growth and fulfilment.